4Prox

Predicting the Future of Mobile (location-based) Social Networking

 ABI research has released a provocative report on the future of mobile (location-based) social networking.  The press release and published graphs have stimulated a skeptical response from the blogosphere. Clint Boulton, eweek, and Frederic Lardinois, ReadWriteWeb, have articulated their doubts particularly with respect to $3.3 billion forecast 2013 market size, the business models and today’s poor performance .  Granted the mobile eco-system's dysfunctional structure, software and hardware have limitations, business models are yet to be proven and the offerings to date have not been compelling.  Perhaps an analysis of the numbers will help us determine truth or hype?

 

Let’s dissect the numbers (and make some assumptions).

 

A $3.3 billion market with 80 million users, that’s an average of 58 million users generating $4.8 / user month or $0.20/ day in 2013.  At $5-20 CPM net (avg. $12.50), means that each user has to generate 16 page views per day – that’s high if you are just searching for your closest friends.  Currently to open a page enter information (16 characters), click return, and receive a page of results takes about 28 seconds, including network delay – 8-10 minutes per day, that’s achievable.  The point is that getting the page views is easier than the achieving the daily habitual usage.

Other income will come from licensing deals, like Gypsii and Garmin that will support the short term mobile social networking coffers; rev. share partnerships, between FaceBook and Loopt, that will increase frequency of use and customer acquisition; there will be a combination of native and third party apps populating added to the mobile social networking experience that may bring further revenue.  However I think these items will have a marginal impact in the short run.

The real problem with proximity social networking today is woefully poor user experience, that' s why they lack critical mass, even the leaders.  They are light years away from 16 daily page views per user.  Social networking is only partially about “where you at?”, Loopt’s tag line.    Mobile social networking is about allowing people to expand their contact base, disseminate peer-to-peer information and advance themselves socially and professionally. 

 

 How do you make mobile social networking compelling?

 

People’s lives have got to revolve around their mobile social network service.  They have got to reach for the app as often as they look at their email inbox (more than use voice features).  There has got to be excitement and new possibility “pushed” from the phone constantly.  The mobile's intimacy and convenience is a huge asset.
 

 

The obvious extension is the opportunity to meet new people  with whom they share interests. The CTIA US Privacy Guidelines (I led the early team drafting the early privacy provisions) are complete and new introductions are now possible.  Privacy can be modulated to create a safe experience (click here to read more about privacy).  When social networking becomes about advancing one’s self socially and professionally, expanding one’s contact base, that’s when it grabs you, that’s a big part of the answer.

 

About Julian Bourne

Julian Bourne is an inventor of mobile social networking and other award-winning GPS mobile applications. He was granted a mobile social networking patent US #7,310,676 and a further patent allowed; He launched the world's first location-based (AGPS) mobile social networking application in the UK provisioned to events attended by 500,000 people (Oct 2004); won the NAVTEQ Global LBS Challenge, best social networking application, April 2006 (4 winners / 140 entrants); He has built the first GPS navigation application personalized to the digital calendar. This patent pending product is called Prompt. It makes sure people are never late, and has been described as "a service more intelligent and resourceful than anything we've seen before" (Mobile Messenger 2.0, July 2008). Proxpro is based near Boston MA.

How would you compare on-line business networking to in-person business networking?

Martin Brossman, a success coach, asked the following interesting question on LinkedIn Answers

How would you compare on-line business networking to in-person business networking?

I believe the key concept is intellectual proximity. Intellectual proximity is a quantitative measure of the incremental social capital to be gained from two people meeting (online or in person). It is a function of networking intent, as well as the relative hierarchical level of the networkers. If there is a zero sum game (I win you lose) there is no incremental social capital. Online it is easy to calculate, for networker and networkee, if there is intellectual proximity. However at a party, in a crowded room, it is difficult to find people you share interests with. Socially we use introductions to help identify intellectual proximity, "you must meet so and so, you are in the same business." for instance.

If there was a way to identify intellectual proximity with people in your physical proximity then you have the perfect scenario. What is needed is an enabling technology to help find the people that matter to you, and meet face-to-face to build relationship. If you are interested read this patent US # 7,310,676.

About Julian Bourne

Julian Bourne is CEO and Founder of Proxpro Inc, a company spearheading a new wave of pragmatic GPS software solutions that help people predict the future. A location-based services thought leader, Julian is an inventor of mobile social networking (Patent No.: US 7,310,676 and continuation 11/198,126) and other awarding winning GPS software applications. A seasoned veteran of high tech industries, Julian’s prior role was as Global President of Morgan Crucible’s Specialty Division, where he led a range of growth businesses serving semi-conductor, solar, aerospace, super-abrasives and fuel cell industries. While traveling frequently for business, he recognized the need for services to help executives to “connect the dots” when traveling on business in unfamiliar places.

In April 2006, Julian won the social networking category in NAVTEQ’s 2006 Global Location Based Services Challenge, best Social Networking application. In August 2006, Julian received the 40-under-40 award in Boston Business Journal’s list honoring 40 rising stars under the age of forty.

Should Social Networking be strictly for social networking or for business networking, or both?

It is often asked should we keep professional and social networking separate.  Clearly LinkedIn believes people should keep a clear demarcation.  By contrast Facebook would probably like to have more professional users, rather than having a totally social brand.

Sometimes we forget the sociology behind social network analysis. The study was designed to people calculate social capital - the qualitative and quantitative sum of their contacts. People use social networking to expand their contact base, disseminate peer-to-peer information and advance themselves socially and professionally. One would keep them separate if the information one disseminates socially might reduce their professional social capital or vice versa. For some it is just easier, and less risky, to keep them separate, but, in my view, you are not optimizing your social capital by doing so.

Julian Bourne
CEO & Founder, Proxpro Inc.

Julian Bourne is an inventor of mobile social networking and other award-winning GPS mobile applications. He was granted a mobile social networking patent US #7,310,676 and a further patent allowed; He launched the world's first location-based (AGPS) mobile social networking application in the UK provisioned to events attended by 500,000 people (Oct 2004); won the NAVTEQ Global LBS Challenge, best social networking application, April 2006 (4 winners / 140 entrants); He has built the first GPS navigation application personalized to the digital calendar. This patent pending product is called Prompt. It makes sure people are never late, and has been described as "a service more intelligent and resourceful than anything we've seen before" (Mobile Messenger 2.0, July 2008) because it gives people the ability to predict the future. Proxpro is based near Boston MA.

Who will be the Winners and Losers in Mobile Social Networking?

InMobile.org has been having a debate about the future of Mobile Social Networking.  Here is my contribution to the discussion.

1. Who will be THE biggest winner in Mobile Social Networking?
a) Today's big social networking companies (e.g. Facebook),
b) Independent mobile social networking companies (e.g. MocoSpace) or c) Some other type of company?

 Mobile social networking will have a variety morphologies: communication will be important in some but other mobile social networking services will be maps, navigation, user generated content or situation awareness centric.  Along the continuum social networking importance, as a feature, will vary according to membership behavior and developer creativity.  My personal view is that it is subjective content that matters and social networking is secondary.

 All businesses will be driven by value, relevance, stickiness and user acquisition.  Each of the contingent parties: carriers, social networking company, device manufacturers, carrier sponsored independents, device sponsored independents or independent will approach the challenge by exploiting their strengths. 

 The degree of success will be weighted less by the unassailable strengths of the incumbents but more by their obstacles.

 The carriers? demarcation of on-deck services limits those companies that partner with them.  Business model, value cannibalization and other limiting constraints suffocate the user experience and innovation.

 Social networking companies / portals must have a technology lowest common denominator approach and will naturally favor PC services that translate to mobile (search, messaging and status updates).  However they may not have access to all handsets or location coordinates.

 Device manufacturers are very fragmented and have relationships with the carriers to maintain.  Merging combinations of the above, will meet increased resistance before they reach critical mass.

 My preference is independents that have killer mobile applications, supported by social networking, which are able to rise above the noise. 

 The jigsaw puzzle has many pieces and not all are interchangeable.  Winner takes all does not apply here,  web-based incumbents must lose share in the mobile ecosystem.  Licensing mobile social networking patents is a good place to be too.

2. What is THE most important unique feature about mobile that will make MOBILE social networking different?

Location will be the most important feature, combined with immediacy and always on awareness. 

3. What is the business model for mobile social networking?

I'm not a big believer in subscriptions for social networking.   Some brands may feel they command a premium, but in time people will unsubscribe and again the brands will lose share.   So an ad-supported model is important long term.  If your membership can command high value CPM, so much the better.

Julian Bourne
CEO & Founder, Proxpro Inc.

Julian Bourne is an inventor of mobile social networking and other award-winning GPS mobile applications. He was granted a mobile social networking patent US #7,310,676 and a further patent allowed; He launched the world's first location-based (AGPS) mobile social networking application in the UK provisioned to events attended by 500,000 people (Oct 2004); won the NAVTEQ Global LBS Challenge, best social networking application, April 2006 (4 winners / 140 entrants); He has built the first GPS navigation application personalized to the digital calendar. This patent pending product is called Prompt. It makes sure people are never late, and has been described as "a service more intelligent and resourceful than anything we've seen before" (Mobile Messenger 2.0, July 2008) because it gives people the ability to predict the future. Proxpro is based near Boston MA.

Digital Mapping: All the World's a Stage, or, is it More Like a Chess Board?

Richard Waters' article in today's Financial Times (May 22, 2008) accurately and articulately describes how mapping is becoming the chessboard on which we act out our lives.  John Hanke's goal, at Google Earth, is to make a kind of "mirror world, a replica world".  Erik Jorgensen, Microsoft Online operations, described how every trip to the theater involves looking for parking and searching for a restaurant, so why should local search involve keywords .  From a strategic standpoint Google, NOKIA (NAVTEQ), TomTom (TeleAtlas), and Microsoft are all running very hard and producing amazing platforms for  Proxpro and  other developers to work with.

 

All these companies have focused on what's concrete.  Anssi Vanjoki, Nokia, describes maps as "a very concrete expression of our context".  Differentiation for the next generation of firms in the future will come from how well companies portray information that is dynamic, is relevant, interpreted and used to project a future outcomes, so that we all make better decisions.  This arena is called "situation awareness".

There are layers of situation awareness that go beyond maps and points of interest.  For instance mobile social networking, where, on a permission basis, people will want to be introduced (safely) to contacts who share an interest (cognitive / intellectual proximity) and are in their physical proximity.   This may be as simple as meeting someone who shares your taste in music, or follows NASCAR, or extending your professional network for a job opportunity.  To avoid zero sum games (I win you lose), matching technology is used to filter potential introductions.  For example I envision people icons being color coded, red as a potentially valuable introduction, orange for less important, and so on. Another form of situation awareness involves GPS navigation and traffic.  Wouldn't it be great if your navigation device knew where you had to go to, without you programming it; if it knew when you had to be there; and told you when to leave.  The blue, green and red bar is a version of Proxpro Prompt that fuses the calendar with GPS (patent pending) and informs the user that they have 37 minutes drive from their next appointment (including predicted traffic) so they have 2 hours 23 minutes to do some work or perhaps meet some interesting new people.

About Proxpro:  Proxpro is spearheading a new wave of situation aware GPS software and created the world's first A-GPS  social networking applications in October 2004.  Proxpro won the NAVTEQ Global LBS Challenge in April 2006, best social networking application (4 winners 140 entrants).  The company has a mobile social networking patent  US # 7,310,676 and patent allowed 11/198,126 which go on sale through the auctioneers OceanTomo, June 25-26, 2008.  Proxpro has just launched a new navigation product called Prompt that fuses the calendar to GPS and gets people to the right place at the right time (patent pending). 

For more information contact: JulianBourne "at" sign proxpro.com

       

Proxpro's Second Mobile Social Networking Patent Allowed

I was delighted to hear news yesterday that Proxpro's second mobile social networking patent 11/198,126 has been allowed by the examiner.  This was a continuation of US Patent # 7,310,676 granted Dec 18, 2007 (Filed Feb 8, 2005). 

Both Proxpro's patent and patent allowed will go on sale June 25-26, 2008, by auction through Oceantomo.  Click here to read more about this lot

Method and computer system for matching mobile device users for business and social networking

Abstract

A business or social networking method is operative in a server. The method enables mobile device users to meet one another, on a permission basis. The determination of whether a given pair of mobile device users are introduced depends on whether the server determines they are in intellectual or "cognitive" proximity, which is typically a function of one or more factors, such as: each user's reciprocal networking objective, the nature of the industry in which the user works, the user's level within the management hierarchy of his or her company, any specialty function the individual may possess, and so on. Individuals who are matched in one or more of such attributes to a given degree or threshold are said to be in intellectual proximity. According to the invention, when given mobile devices users are within physical proximity of one another during an overlapping time window, the server determines whether the users are also within a given intellectual proximity. If so, and if both users have opted to receive new introductions, the server issues a mutual collaboration opportunity message to each of the mobile device users to determine whether they desire to be introduced to one another. Preferably, the mutual collaboration opportunity message masks personally identifying information. If the mobile device users agree to be introduced, the server establishes a direct private messaging session between them. In an alternative embodiment, a mobile device user initiates a contact by performing a networking search query that identifies one or more prospects who can then be contacted by the mobile device user asynchronously.

60% of MEF Members identify Mobile Social Networking as Top Priority

The Mobile Entertainment Forum (MEF) today announced the next stage of its mobile social networking initiative launching simultaneously in France, India, Italy, UK and the USA focusing on revenue generation, business models and consumer protection.

According to MEF's recent membership survey, the global phenomenon of social networking tops the industry's agenda with nearly 60% of MEF members identifying it in a recent member survey as a top priority.

MEF's goal is to ensure that the mobile entertainment industry understands how to offer mobile social networks that provide a good user experience and ensure revenue generation within a safe environment for consumers.

Gerard Grech, MEF EMEA Chair, added: "Our members realise that the mobile device is the perfect social networking platform. This initiative provides a framework upon which the industry can base forward-looking business decisions and plan long term growth."

Mobile Social Networking Privacy: The Power to Modulate is Important.

Paola Antonelli, Curator at the Museum of Modern Art, interviewed by Charlie Rose, aired on WGBX (May 9, 2008), says some sensible things about privacy that are applicable to LBS social networking privacy.

 “The need for privacy is generational…people in their teens and in their twenties almost don’t care about privacy until they go to a job interview and they have all of their FaceBook history facing them. The ideal of privacy and the ideal of individuality have changed tremendously. It’s not physical, it’s metaphysical. You can be totally alone on the evening train on Friday at 6 o’clock, pressed like a sardine, but you have your iPod on, you have your bubble of space around you - you are alone. Then you go home, dark, no one around, you turn your computer on and you plug into your social network. This kind of modulation, when you are alone and when you are not, is the kind of power people want, in order to be able to modulate their privacy. So we can have different needs: if I’m 15, I can have a different need for privacy than if I’m 45. It really is about enabling people to modulate.”

The US wireless industry, through the CTIA, has approved privacy safe-guards in their document Best Practices and Guidelines for Location-based Services.  Key principles include notice, consent, revocation of consent and security of information.

I think Antonelli's privacy modulation is a great concept.  In the proximity social networking applications Proxpro has built, design modulations included a 7 tier approach to privacy:
- Adherence to above safe-guards
- Functionality that becomes active / inactive at different times of the day (off between 8pm-8am)
- places where active / inactive (eg switched off at the home / in the office)
- categorizing friends at 2 levels of friendship, and when a user would be visible to them
- obscuration of precise location  (within 300m)
- validation of intellectual / or cognitive proximity (quantification of affinity) patent US# 7,310,676
- restrictions on the availability of PII

Proxpro built the world's first proximity (LBS) social networking solution in October 2004; won the NAVTEQ Global LBS Challenge, best social networking application in April 2006; helped draft the CTIA LBS Best Practices Document and patented mobile social networking US# 7,310,676 and extension 11/198,126 Method and Computer System For Matching Mobile Device Users Business and Social Networking For on sale at auction through OceanTomo June 25-26, 2008.

550 million GPS-Enabled Handsets by 2012 - Watch out for Intellectual Property Land Grab

ABI Research (05/09/08) predicts 550 million GPS-Enabled Handsets Will Ship by 2012:

"In the wake of personal navigation devices’ success, cellular carriers have started to offer on-board and off-board navigation solutions, as well as a range of LBS (Location Based Services) such as friend finder and local search on GPS handsets. Community and social-networking-related functionality ....is also becoming popular and is expected to boost GPS-enabled handset uptake as carriers, handsets manufacturers, and service providers look to capitalize on the LBS trend."

With such huge growth projections there is sure to be an intellectual property / content land grab soon!

NAVTEQ has gone to NOKIA; TeleAtlas is going to TomTom.  If your company is GPS navigation and mobile social networking centric, and you own important intellectual property, it's going to be fun!

All Social Networking Sites are Becoming Job Seeker Tools

Today's New York Times has an interesting article written by Stephanie Rosenbloom on how social networking sites, across the spectrum, are turning into business tools.  That MySpace, Friendster and FaceBook are generating job seeking leads for their subscribers.  This function has always been a strong component of LinkedIn, however such utility for consumer sites may come as a surprise.

When I wrote the Proxpro's mobile social networking patent #7,310,676 and the continuation 11/198,126 (to be sold at auction by Oceantomo on June 25th, 2008) job seeking was one piece of functionality I anticipated.  The  technology  enables, on a permission basis, the user to specify distinct types of people (for instance working in product management for Microsoft) in their physical proximity (without giving Personally Identifiable Information), who might help them with their career development, allow them to communicate and potentially bring them face-to-face.

The article continues by saying that LinkedIn Live meetings are held where job candidates, recruiters and executives are able to connect in person.  I love the "pollination" analogy described by Steve Biegel,  creative director at Scarlet Heifer, it artistically expresses the symbiotic (non-zero sum) way that social networking , and job seeking, works in practice.